(This is part 1 of a new series on clinical trials and the most important problems in biology. It's a non-final draft for now, and I'd be thrilled to have feedback.)

This is a placeholder stub for now. I'd be thrilled to chat about it!

The intended content can be approximated by Eric Minikel's "How pharmaceutical industry financial modelers think about your rare disease".

The biggest difference between Minikel's take and mine is that he is focused on rare, chronic, poorly-understood diseases, whereas my interests tend towards potential pandemics or more generally on diseases that are acute, infectious, and common. The model basically goes through, but I'd frame some parts of it differently if I'm setting up for the thing that I want to talk about next...

(Next: Drug development costs can range over two orders of magnitude)