Drug development costs can range over two orders of magnitude
This post is cross-posted to a new newsletter I'm launching to collect just my posts and writings in the cluster of biotech / clinical trials / venture capital topics.
New drugs being developed can be "easy" drugs or "difficult" drugs.
In order to know whether your drug candidate is safe and effective, you're going to test it in a series of clinical trials. In each trial, you'll recruit some number of patients, give each patient the treatment, placebo, or a comparator drug, wait some time, and test them for pre-specified endpoints.
Within that framework, however the trials for different drugs will differ greatly. (And the different phases of a single drug's trials may differ by even more!) Typically, the greatest axes of variation will be:
- Who are your patients?
- How common is the indication that you're treating? How often do people go to your trial site to get treatment for it? How many of them want to be in a trial?
- Is your trial taking anyone with the disease? / Is it only for people who are not responding to some other standard treatment?
- Are your patients otherwise healthy? / Do they have elevated risks for other complications?
- What condition does the drug affect?
- Are you trying to change something that patients already have? / Are you trying to stop them from developing something else?
- If you're preventing something, what fraction of your patients will develop it without treatment?
- What change in the condition are you trying to measure? Is it yes-or-no or on a scale?
- If the drug "works", what fraction of cases will it change enough for you to measure?
- Where does the trial take place?
- Are you treating patients in a hospital?