My Faults My Own

To these ends…put aside fear for courage, and death for life,

when it is right to do so, until Universe’s end.

IN  WHICH Ross Rheingans-Yoo—a sometime artist, economist, poet, trader, expat, EA, and programmer—writes on things of int­erest.

Reading Feed (last update: April 18)

A collection of things that I was glad I read. Views expressed by linked authors are chosen because I think they're interesting, not because I think they're correct, unless indicated otherwise.


Blog: Balaji Srinivasan @ Medium | Peer Review of “COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California” — "The high reported positive rate in this serosurvey may be explained by the false positive rate of the test and/or by sample recruitment issues." (The punchline is that the false-positive rate of the test, after calibration, is [0,1.2%], and the study turns on a finding of a 0.9% infection rate.) h/t Tyler Cowen.


Blog: Marginal Revolution | Peer Review of “COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California”

Blog: Marginal Revolution | Ahem


Blog: The Grumpy Economist | Ready to reopen?


Speculative preparedness

note: "Preparedness" is right there in the title, but this is an economic analysis for the next crisis, not personal preparedness advice for the current one.

Jeff Kaufman discusses an interaction between price controls and emergency preparedness:

Let's say you see a potential pandemic coming, and you produce a product that could be critical. Maybe you make respirator masks, maybe you make ventilators, maybe you make PCR test reagents. You can see that if you and your competitors don't ramp up production and the pandemic happens, there will be a shortage. What do you do?


[One] option is to ramp up production now, speculatively. Start paying workers extra to work longer shifts and run your assembly lines around the clock. Train extra workers. Find what you're bottlenecked on and figure out how to get that ramped up too. If the pandemic fears were overblown you lose a lot of money, but if the pandemic happens people need what you have so much that you can charge high prices. How much

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