nb: This analysis has not been updated to reflect the realized results of the pandemic after publication. previously: Age and Covid-19 IFR in India I replicated my estimation of population-average IFR for Africa-ex-South-Africa (henceforth "Africa"), using the same methodology as my India calculations. Africa is significantly demographically younger
nb: This analysis has not been updated to reflect the realized results of the pandemic after publication. Abstract: India's demographic average age is younger than that of the US. This implies that the strongly age-varying Covid-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) could cause a lower population-average IFR in India
I wrote in January about vaccines and public health, and I wanted to retract my bottom-line recommendation about which vaccine to get -- if you have a choice -- in Hong Kong. Appointments opened to residents 16+ yesterday, so this post is coming a bit late, but oh well. Here
Intended audience: my own later reference. Might be useful for traders thinking about general scoring rules and their constraints (1) The following proposition is paraphrased from Savage 1971 (pdf), the original paper that introduced proper scoring rules way back when. Savage characterized the space of all possible scoring rules two
Zvi Mowshowitz's new policy is not to link to the New York Times, and he's willing to entertain the policy of not linking to NYT reporters' Twitters (though hasn't pulled the trigger yet). I understand where he's coming from -- Cade