Age and Covid-19 IFR in Africa
nb: This analysis has not been updated to reflect the realized results of the pandemic after publication.
previously: Age and Covid-19 IFR in India
I replicated my estimation of population-average IFR for Africa-ex-South-Africa (henceforth "Africa"), using the same methodology as my India calculations. Africa is significantly demographically younger than either India or the US -- the top quintile of age in Africa starts at 39, India at 49, and the US at 61.
I estimate that the age effect creates an Africa population-average IFR 20% that of the US rate (i.e., a US rate 4.94× greater), assuming age-uniform infection rates and no difference in medical care. This effect is driven by the reduced population share of age>70 in Africa (just 18% that of the US).
My work is here, and here's the primary chart:
In my India analysis, I wrote:
The effect of medical care differences on IFR-by-age curves is of first-order importance to this analysis; as an example, if lack of care were