Metaculus has some issues
You can make a prediction that gives you positive points no matter the outcome. So what are we tracking here, participation trophies? (Zvi Mowshowitz)
In Zvi's 2/11 Covid update, he turned to Metaculus for help. He looked at the numbers. Becase the man is an inveterate trader, he saw odds that were Wrong On The Internet and just couldn't stop himself from creating an account to bet against it. And then he saw the payout structure and decided he was done after making a single prediction.
I'm not making this up.
I spent some time with the Metaculus site and figured out how they borked this one up badly enough to drive away Zvi Mowshowitz. I'll try to explain it here.
For the record, here's a presumably current description of the scoring function that I found on the FAQ, slightly abridged:
Your score \(S(T;f)\) at any given time \(T\) is the sum of an "absolute" component and a "relative" component: \[S(T;f)=a(N)